Economic Recession Predictions

Thomas delivers an EconSov briefing at a BMW board room

Economic Recession Update

Surveyed economists from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) predict upcoming recession in the following year:

2019: 10%
2020: 42%
2021: 25%
2022 or later: 23%

This is consistent with forecasts I have been tracking by Guggenheim, Deutsch Bank, Ben Bernanke, Larry Summers, Quantum Fund, and Alan Greenspan.

In 2015, the book Economic Sovereignty: Prosperity in a Free Society, laid out the sociopolitical and economic concepts which drive recession and prosperity. Forecasts for readers and briefing attendees have empowered them to prepare and get ahead with wise choices. Those who applied our concepts and consulting are much better positioned.

What will the next recession look like? Volatile factors make specifics elusive. In the best case, stagnant destructionism (the consumption of capital), is predicted by Daniel Lacalle. He accurately lays out the trajectory of financial repression, and explains how Japan’s decades of destructionism were spared without illegal immigration in order to preserve their social insurance programs. Buckling of the social insurance programs will accelerate the consumption of capital. Immigration, sub-replacement fertility rates, and expansion of redistribution contribute to the acceleration.

Lacalle does not use the term destructionism, but his approach speaks to the Austrian and Classical economic schools of thought, so I’m sure he would agree. Alvarism predicts protracted destructionism in the USA until voters demand implementation of the policies suggested in Economic Sovereignty. Irrespective of whether the upcoming recession is stagnant or severe, quickly adopting the knowledge in Economic Sovereignty will improve any citizen’s position.

2018 Economic Sovereignty Presentations

What’s better than a one-of-a-kind book that condenses volumes of socioeconomic intrigue, concepts, research, and discoveries into a few hundred pages? It’s a presentation of the findings by the author, with Q&A, and book signing! Economic and financial issues change year-to-year, but the discoveries and concepts in Economic Sovereignty: Prosperity in a Free Society remain the same. In 2018, Alvarism has added an assessment of the new GOP Tax Bill to the Economic Sovereignty presentations.


Use our contact form to RSVP, or private message Alvarism LLC or Thomas Kurek on Facebook.

Please RSVP five days before the event to allow organizers to scale their accommodations. The venue address will be disclosed upon RSVP.

Current Presentation Dates

February 13th, 2018 6:30 PM – Fairfax County, VA
February 25th, 2018 12:30 PM – Sterling, VA

Event Description
Financial self-determination, economic misconceptions, class warfare, and the “managed decline” of the US economy revealed. New GOP tax bill assessed.

What do federal and state governments spend our taxes on? How has government spending changed over the years? What does poverty and prosperity look like in America – by numbers and in lifestyle?

The TEA Party, Occupy Wall Street, Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, and economists from different schools of analysis have different visions of the American economy. Economic Sovereignty looks at the economy by the hard numbers, evaluates income dynamics, and juxtaposes American economic performance against the global economy. It also evaluates political ideology that biases economic assertions.

This research arrives at concepts for personal financial independence and policy suggestions for the government to eliminate the debt and restore economic self-determination to American citizens. Join the author in a presentation of the key findings and discover this uncommon knowledge with a personal touch.

Author and speaker Thomas Kurek founded Alvarism LLC, a think tank for economic and sociological analysis based upon empirical, rational and perennial knowledge paradigms. His services were commissioned by the State Department, global hospitality and tourism, ecommerce, healthcare, state government, FBI, and Department of Defense.

Revealed: Economic Sovereignty Cover & Graphic Design Decisions

Full cover of Economic Sovereignty – back, spine, front

The graphic art in Economic Sovereignty: Prosperity in a Free Society is fairly suggestive for a nonfiction book in the socioeconomics, political science, political economy, and comparative economics categories. The first requirements were practical – the images must be obtainable in acceptable-quality resolution, and copyright-free. Although this work is academic, educational, journalistic, and not-for-profit – giving us legal fair use for most copyrighted content – there is no good reason to wantonly frustrate our neighbors’ intellectual property claims.

The cover photo was taken by accident during an uncommon blizzard in the suburbs of Washington DC. The photographer, Ms. Jennifer Serrano, was visiting the area to collaborate on the book and investigate prospects for her career. As a California girl who had never seen such an idyllic winter wonderland, she was mesmerized. Unlike we northeastern snow-goers, who tend to call the snow something along the lines of “fluffy white expletives,” dumping upon us only to crash our cars, make our elderly fall on the pavement, and delay our transportation, Jennifer looked at the snow much like a child making igloos and snowmen. I thought she was going to max-out her cloud storage with all the photos she was taking, but her enthusiasm was a fun reminder of what’s loveable in snow.

Consequently, the cover photo was not planned at all. I just remembered it when reviewing dozens of candidates. Winter was the perfect landscape for Economic Sovereignty, because the harsh weather and desolation represent economic erosion perfectly. The blacks, whites, and greys symbolize the continuum of ideology between the valorists and the institutionalists. The green, gold, and red use color psychology that I learned while branding our music technology company, MYnstrel.

As for the subject? A solitary man marches forth, determined, and persevering through the elements, despite the conditions. A sidewalk to his right is covered to his waist in snow – he takes whatever path is available and yields to the occasional car passing to avoid an untimely accident. His heavy briefcase is a mobile office-in-a-bag – running database servers, web servers, software development environments, Microsoft office, internet, graphics design, and video production. A woman who once tried to carry it needed both arms and had to take a break after less than a block of walking. Despite the icy roads, one way or the other, the meeting was going to be held and the work would get done.

The profligate government had no such incentive to get their work done. Even though most roads were more traversable than mine on the day of that photograph, the schools and government were closed in a purely lazy capitulation to lawyers’ liability intimidations. This lack of ruggedness would make our forefathers ashamed of us, recalling Valley Forge:

Luckily, this business warrior had only economic targets and did not have to risk life and limb for his job. What a privilege it is to pursue prosperity in peace without crime and war. This solitary walking man marching uphill, illustrates the individual prosperity considerations and career choices that every American must make for themselves as they try to add value for their neighbors. Nothing needs to be done to create poverty and ignorance; it is the natural state of mankind. Only the willpower and virtue of individual human beings can fight poverty and ignorance.

With all of this in mind, it was the perfect cover photo.

On the back cover, the Hindenburg disaster is shown to illustrate the coming economic crises, and the historical crises in general that are discussed in the book. Few know that the creators of the Hindenburg warned its operators not to fly it during conditions favorable to static electricity. The operators ignored the warning and it exploded when they dropped the metal cables to the ground. Likewise, this book is a warning about the financial decisions that lead to economic disaster – on a personal and national level.

The photo of Warsaw Poland in the aftermath of World War 2 shows a woman and man making their photo to look as the city did before the destruction. It is a reminder that such rose-colored glasses can be useful in the aftermath of any tragedy, so that people can pick up the pieces and make the best of what comes next. But to what extent does this idealism hinder the accurate perception that’s needed to make the right choices?

The honeycomb and honey pictures on the spine represent the brand of the Alvarian Press and its motto: “Hive mind resigned, honeybee set free.” It is a reminder of the Barberini family’s paternalistic view of its subjects in 17th century Italy, as they opposed the Medici family. Cardinal Maffeo Barberini was elected as Pope, and he put the honeybees of his coat of arms on his monuments. John Bargrave said of Pope Urban VIII:

“Upon his elevation, his kindred flew from Florence to Rome like so many bees (which are the Barberini’s arms), to suck the honey of the Church, which they did excessively.”

In the context of the time, honey was a symbol of God’s favor in the promised land, and the hive represented a well-ruled Church. Later, bees were used often on the seals of savings and loans institutes. Alvarism wants to spread the honey, and rejoices in the liberated thinking that guards against Barberini-styled nepotism and collectivism that was encouraged by so many institutionalists in history. In ideological terms – we are erasing the patronizing symbolism of the hive and bees by appropriating it for its opposite meaning. If the Medici family could laugh from beyond the grave, this sardonic imagery would be their punch line.

The cover is definitely not the crowning achievement of Economic Sovereignty compared to the actual research, but it’s a great illustration and enhancement. There is meaning and purpose behind every detail.

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Will Swindled Middle Class Americans Ever Reclaim Their Liberty?

Plato asserted, “Everything that deceives may be said to enchant.” As middle class Americans scurry about under the weight of their enormous debts, overpriced education, inflated mortgages, unaffordable healthcare, and crushing taxation, they remain captivated by the spells of unworthy leaders. Economic deception is omnipresent within news articles, political speeches, classrooms, and movie scripts. In addition, normalcy bias and willful denial impels us to disparage anyone who conveys unpleasant truths. Consequently, the majority is stupefied whenever economic calamities strike. But middle class Americans do not need an education in economics to realize that the American dream is bending like the elbow of an inebriated politician charging his bar tab to the taxpayers. The American dream envisions a chance for everybody to gain prosperity with hard work, natural talent, and a little luck. It presumes a fair system of compensation for productivity, where the customer is king, and we direct our productive energies to wherever our neighbors vote with every dollar they spend.

The envy-mongering propagandists who weave fairy tales of inequality, have no respect for that liberty. Nor do they respect cognizant Americans who observe equal lifestyles in their communities that make Karl Marx throw parties in his grave. They are poverty hustlers, using terms like the one-percent along with fake statistics to induce wrong beliefs about prosperity incidence, which they incorrectly refer to as wealth distribution. They deceive people with more than inaccurate terminology; they distort basic concepts. Prosperity and poverty is defined by material concerns alone, but they create poetic distortions such as a poverty of spirit, family, love, or culture, as if social dysfunctions can be ameliorated with money. They must not have listened to the radio in the last century to hear song choruses like “can’t buy me love.” They also have not studied the eternal ancient wisdom of Claudius Claudianus, who said, “whoever desires is always poor.”

On the other hand, perhaps they do understand this wisdom, since they frequently inspire malformed desires in the minds of their audiences. The people that they call “poor” have video games, air conditioning, cable television, washing machines, cell phones, and computers. They eat what they want to, and have an infinitesimal chance of homelessness. Legal privileges and redistribution bring them into the same neighborhoods as middle class Americans who can barely afford to pay their bills. They live in the same places, eat at the same restaurants, go to the same schools, and visit the same doctors. They report only $15,000 in income but they spend $39,000. The poverty hustlers exclude the value of public housing, Medicaid, food stamps, and other subsidies. They do not adjust for cost of living, and they make comparisons to before-tax income. Between 96% and 99% of Americans have had reasonable access to healthcare since the 1980s. The proportion of Americans who live in statistically falsified, fake poverty is 14.3%, while 20% of middle class Americans use welfare for perks. Only one-percent of Americans are actually destitute – truly impoverished with inadequate shelter, food, or clothing. They suffer because of the fake poor and their poverty hustlers – not because of inadequate taxation. In this redistributionist society, equality is plentiful and justice is scarce.

How can we better envision this crushing level of equality
within which we are immersed? Death is the great equalizer, but the same could be said about traffic. Since America is over 80% urbanized, we often sit in traffic observing the cars around us. Who is prosperous? The guy in the Mercedes Benz is in debt by $800,000 after his mortgage, car, and student loans. His profligate debt is not prosperity. The guy next to him in the Porsche is a violent drug dealer, one step away from prison. The guy behind him in the Corvette sold his no-interest-loan house for a fortune, stealing from his neighbors through the government bailouts, banking policies, and subsidies that artificially bubbled rental and mortgage prices to the stratosphere. The woman beside him in the Lexus is unemployed, and drawing $70,000 per year from welfare and subsidies while her children crawl around barefoot. The woman at the front of the line in the luxury SUV spends her days as a government bureaucrat barely doing four hours of work a day; she fills the rest of her “work hours” surfing the internet, perusing social networks, and texting friends and family.

One lane over, a college student in a Toyota Prius is living off of her parents and loans. The statistics say she is “poor,” but the thousands of dollars of tattoos on her skin and spring break vacations say that she is rich. A millionaire computer genius in a beat-up economy car slowly approaches the back of the line, sporting his clearance-rack button-down shirt, and tattered loafers. Next to him is a local café barista in a used Mustang. He barely makes above minimum wage, but his lifestyle is similar to that of the “rich” people in his neighborhood because they are paying for most of his rent, schooling, and healthcare through government programs.

It is difficult to discern those who earn their living honestly from those who feed from ubiquitous redistribution. Some acquire wealth from marrying, inheriting, or coercive law suits. Blue-collar union laborers are paid much more than some of their college-educated peers. Teachers, soldiers, and government employees take their compensation through enormous benefits instead of large salaries; consequently, they take a king’s ransom of prosperity in tax avoidance on top of the unstated value of their benefits. Investors reap private gains with public losses due to bank bailouts and government expenditures that salvage their failures. No decent person would claim that a wealthy prostitute, thief, corrupt businessman, or drug dealer is successful in life. They steal their prosperity through illicit actions.

Whether proper or illicit, all redistribution is essentially something-for-nothing. The measure of success is not necessarily prosperity, but a society that embraces the worst instincts of humanity easily confuses the two. Wasteful activity is encouraged from ubiquitous redistribution, and the economy begins to eat itself alive. Legendary Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises called this subtle process destructionism:

Such a policy of destructionism means the consumption of capital. There are few who recognize this fact. Capital consumption can be detected statistically and can be conceived intellectually, but it is not obvious to everyone. To see the weakness of a policy which raises the consumption of the masses at the cost of existing capital wealth, and thus sacrifices the future to the present, and to recognize the nature of this policy, requires deeper insight than that vouchsafed to statesmen and politicians or to the masses who have put them into power. As long as the walls of the factory buildings stand, and the trains continue to run, it is supposed that all is well with the world. The increasing difficulties of maintaining the higher standard of living are ascribed to various causes, but never to the fact that a policy of capital consumption is being followed…

The policy of [Classical] Liberalism is the procedure of the prudent father who saves and builds for himself and his successors. The policy of destructionism is the policy of the spendthrift who dissipates his inheritance regardless of the future.

–Ludwig von Mises, Socialism: An Economic and Sociological Analysis

As capital is consumed through destructionism, another effect is the perversion of scales and measures. Accurate measure of value, labor, and productivity becomes divorced from compensation as the results of productive labor are collectivized and redistributed. Freedom of opportunity is sacrificed on the altar of equal outcome, burying the productivity of the ambitious and diligent.

The unique blend of economic analysis, political principles, and historical evidence in the book Economic Sovereignty dispel the illusions. The discoveries were made possible by looking at American prosperity from very different assumptions. What have we spent our money on for the past century? How much money is actually in our pockets, after all forms of taxation are considered? What are the forms of redistribution and something-for-nothing in any society? How can we estimate the level of redistribution? How have people actually acquired their prosperity in different careers?

The shocking truths that emerge will vindicate every American whose intuition suspects a subverted American dream, along with unprecedented economic equality. What remains is wealth-by-the-trillions that is trapped in overvalued services, civic expenditures, malinvestments, and real estate. The elucidated economic reality shows that the mobs of people screaming about inequality are pumping their fists in the air over illusions in their heads. If middle class Americans do not wake up to the methods of the swindlers, their liberty will continue to be stolen by criminals, scofflaws, and perfectly law-abiding charlatans.

(This article refers to sections 1.1 and 1.2 in Economic Sovereignty. All citations for the arguments here, are within the book)

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New, Exclusive Facts About America Reveal Economic Blunders

On a Sailing Ship by Caspar David Friedrich, 1774-1840

Information about the American economy suffers from giant barriers, misleading people who sincerely care about prosperity and poverty. News organizations and entertainers must cater to the bias of their audience and the interests of their owners and corporate advertisers. Educators and professors must cater to the ideological trends of their peers, mentors, and school administrators. Government officials must cater to the interests of their lobbyists, nonprofits, voters, and campaign donors. Religious leaders feed from this tornado of misinformation and try to reconcile it with their congregations’ beliefs. The facts revealed in the book Economic Sovereignty circumvented all of those influences by using only the charitable sacrifices of the author and concerned citizens. The true story of the American economy is captured within its pages – which entirely violates popular narratives.

Firstly, a prosperous economy puts more money into services than goods, because raw materials and products become much cheaper than people’s time and labor. High wages and profits follow that condition. Steady savings and investments increase, as citizens choose to use their money for an easier future. Growth in private fixed assets – the items of lasting value that contribute to our infrastructure – increases because people spend money on long-term plans instead of short-lived consumption. More profits drive competitive innovation, which leads to wondrous inventions that help everyone. Housing growth with increased quality, more spending on discretionary goods, and a growing cultural infrastructure manifest, as citizens spend their extra money on the things that gratify their desires instead of their needs. Lastly, large governments emerge with armies of lawyers and bureaucrats and high taxation, as their ability increases to siphon money from a prosperous economy without violent retaliation of the masses.

For the past century, America developed these features rapidly; it is more prosperous than ever! Its success at lifting people out of poverty is unprecedented in human history. The triumph of American liberty, capitalism, profits, innovation, competition, and small government has provided surplus for its people and foreign nations. During the same period, the socialist, imperial, and dirigiste nations across the world were destroying their societies with starvation, tyranny, stagnation, and injustice. America has seen its share of setbacks, but any failure of capitalism was enabled only by anti-capitalist interference – government picking winners and losers, or failing to enforce fair-marketplace rules. Short of a total system breakdown, it is unlikely that America will ever see the kind of poverty that emerged during dustbowl and the Great Depression. Regrettably, as American capitalism has triumphed over poverty and chaos, it has increasingly taken on the institutionalist ideology that simultaneously destroyed other nations and brought great misery to millions of people. If America refuses to trim the size of government at the state, local, and federal levels, it will continue to rot itself from the inside out – in a subtle and systematic process called destructionism.

Nevertheless, comparing America to itself over time does not give us an idea of how exceptional America is compared to the world. Unfortunately, such comprehensive treatments are nowhere to be found except in obscure economic forums. Schools and news media show us “the world” through individual experiences and personal stories that distort our perception. A person who travels to a foreign nation can acquire an emblematic or atypical picture through their tiny experience. Then they will falsely draw generalizations about foreign societies based on their limited experience amongst millions of people. Even living in the New York metropolis for decades could not give a person an accurate understanding of what millions of different people experience just miles from their home. We need to evaluate systemic evidence for any valid generalization.

In Economic Sovereignty, American economic data was compared to global economic data. It revealed that America is incredibly economically exceptional in the world because of environmental, political, and cultural advantages. Other societies have failed to use their resources and labor productively for the past century. Our production, currency stability, energy, infrastructure, technology, transportation, research, cultural publications, national security, immigration, and cultural diversity eclipse the rest of the world. The awful news is that all of these advantages have eroded since our society has increasingly adopted political and social standards that violate the fundamentals of America enshrined in our anthropology and Constitution. Without economic sovereignty, America will certainly give way to one economic blunder after the next, and remove itself from the center of the world stage. Edward Gibbon said that “the winds and waves are always on the side of the ablest navigators.” As America obliviously sails into a typhoon, we are left wondering if there is any navigator left who, first and foremost, demands an accurate compass and a disciplined crew.

(This article refers to sections 1.3 and 1.4 in Economic Sovereignty. All citations for the arguments here, are within the book)

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Cite Me, Invite Me, Please Don’t Rob Me – Killing Intellectual Subversion

Let’s assume that you devoted decades of your life to guiding your beloved children to independence, joy, peace, and success. There are dozens of ways for other people to ruin your children with crime, immorality, or even legal forms of aggression. Whether your children ended up maimed for life from assaults, bankrupt from corrupt spouses, or on the couches of psychologists from relational and psychological abuse – you would feel as if your life’s most precious work was violated. This is similar to what we experience when corrupt people violate and steal our intellectual work. The difference is, parenthood is so common that most people can relate to the violation of their children. Because fewer people have chosen to spend decades of their lives in spreadsheets, books, deep thought, experiments, revisions, writing, and painstaking formulation, intellectual violation is poorly understood.

The most obvious indicators of insufficient empathy are not even diatribes from socialists who foolishly demand the end of intellectual property. Blatantly callous norms are captured in the language used to describe intellectual subversion, such as academic dishonesty and academic misconduct. It’s as if we set loose a gaggle of nursery school babysitters into the adult population whose sole purpose is to protect our most corrupt peers from even experiencing guilt for their fraud. Their attitude:

“Woops! Well, nobody is perfect, you know! A little dishonesty here, a little misconduct there – completely conducive to a normal society. And of course, it’s only relevant for academics.”

Intellectual subversion extends far beyond academic institutions. Direct victims include independent researchers, professionals in various fields, analysts, journalists, fiction writers, comedians, software developers, historians, engineers, and scientists. They are the creators, and violating them does not just harm them. There are severe consequences for intellectual consumers, and the progress of humanity itself. In reality, there is no level of intellectual subversion that is acceptable; we must detect and punish it with vigor.

Intellectual subversion is the disruption of society’s system of creation and discovery. There are multiple tactics that frauds use:

  • Bribery – offering a creator money, contracts, privilege, reputation, or promotions if they use their creative talents to produce content or results that satisfy a predetermined agenda
  • Cheating – helping a creator to gain an edge by providing them with resources and information that their competition does not have, and that will surely damage their competition. Coworkers can be cheated by cronyism when management provides their favored employees with opportunities and resources denied to the ones delivering the results.
  • Deception – giving false information to resource providers in order to gain advantage in competition. For instance, an entertainer can currently buy one-hundred YouTube likes for five dollars. So a person with a $50,000 marketing budget can buy a “viral” video with one-million likes. In this way, purely idiotic ideas make untalented hacks famous while genuinely good creations are crowded out of the public’s attention.
  • Fabrication – falsification of data and evidence
  • Impersonation – assuming the identity of a creator to give them an advantage. Shadow writers are paid impersonators, but they make their agreements without coercion.
  • Plagiarism – the reproduction of another creator’s work without crediting, citing, or acknowledging them
  • Sabotage – interfering with the completion of or attention to another creator’s work
  • Appropriation – taking the ideas, methods, findings, and conclusions of the original creator and rewording them without crediting the creator. This is an insidious form of intellectual subversion that combines sabotage and masked plagiarism. It’s not necessarily illegal, because we can’t copyright an idea.

All of these tactics destroy the lives’ work of creators – robbing them in ways that a common thief could never fathom. They also rob the public of the best creations, and lift up incompetent people who then destroy the work that they stole with their inexperience and unfamiliarity with the content. The public not only loses access to the best creations; the intellectually subverted creations they consume are only distorted shades of the original. The process of intellectual subversion also breaks the chain of creation. The original creator with all the knowledge and skills to refine and adapt the work efficiently and superiorly is cut out of the future of the creation.

There are over one-hundred citations and credits in Economic Sovereignty. I would be glad to discuss the results, collaborate, or present to any interested party. I believe that I speak for all creators when I kindly request for readers to cite me, invite me, but please don’t rob me. Everyone loses when intellectual subversion is perpetrated – society at large and the thieves included. When the public discovers the truth, the thieves should be made infamous and lose any advantage they robbed from the devoted lifetimes of honest creators. We will kill intellectual subversion by bringing consequences to the thieves – including the ones who technically did not break intellectual property laws. Making them infamous by exposing their fraud, and persuading the public to choose genuine creations will go a long way.

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Something Amazing Happened When I Affirmed Nonprofit Political Campaigning Rules

Union Protests the 2011 Wisconsin Budget Repair Bill in Madison Wisconsin

It would be difficult for me to avoid political discourse, living in the Washington D.C. metropolis and devoting decades of my free time to economic and cultural research. I have always voted, and I always had my opinion on which candidates would do a better job. Still, I never sought out political campaigns, but they somehow sought me when I began publically disclosing the results of my analyses. Many modern political speeches generally disinterest me because they often insult our intelligence and make us question the claims of “progress” for humanity. All the stunning science and technology in the world can’t compensate for a corrosive culture. I encourage people to read the speeches of Abraham Lincoln and Cicero, which were conducted with paper, pen, and voice alone. Then observe the phantasmagoria of modern multi-million dollar productions with teleprompters and lowest-common-denominator language that borrows more from Adolph Hitler’s emotive tendencies than the great thinkers of history. Whether or not you like Bertrand Russell, you may agree with his assessment of these emotive persuasive tactics:

“What is essential in mass psychology is the art of persuasion. If you compare a speech of Hitler’s with a speech of (say) Edmund Burke, you will see what strides have been made in the art since the eighteenth century. What went wrong formerly was that people had read in books that man is a rational animal, and framed their arguments on this hypothesis. We now know that limelight and a brass band do more to persuade than can be done by the most elegant train of syllogisms. It may be hoped that in time anybody will be able to persuade anybody of anything if he can catch the patient young and is provided by the State with money and equipment.

This subject will make great strides when it is taken up by scientists under a scientific dictatorship. Anaxagoras maintained that snow is black, but no one believed him. The social psychologists of the future will have a number of classes of school children on whom they will try different methods of producing an unshakable conviction that snow is black.” –Bertrand Russell, The Impact of Science on Society, 1953

If Russell could see the global political climate today, I’m sure he’d say, “I told you so.” Yet America is far from the globe’s worst offenders. There are those who take U.S. aid while biting the hand that feeds them with kindergarten language. Admittedly, I employed emotive techniques as part of my business counterintelligence strategy for our music technology company, MYnstrel, Inc. Prospective investors and partners would sometimes say, “your website is so cryptic and loaded with marketing-speak, what are you actually up to?” I insisted that they sign a nondisclosure agreement before I even gave them access to the second level of details. Our strategy paid off when a very large and well-connected competitor robbed our business model just two years after we put our website up. It turns out that one of our consultants spent time in pubs with that competitor’s Chief Technology Officer, so we assumed that was the vector for the breach. Luckily, we only divulge project information on a need-to-know basis, so we did not lose any significant secrets. Their reorganization and emulation of our business model was no deeper than what anyone could garner from our website. And baby, “there ain’t nothing like the real thing.” There is no way that a competitor would even come close to what we have discovered for music business and technology.

My experience in marketing for MYnstrel was useful for nonprofit leadership as well. In the making of Alvarism, LLC, my associates and I ran years of social experiments in testing mass psychology. One of the most disturbing revelations was how people with impressive credentials and high intellect were vulnerable to self-defeat in the pursuit of truth. Once they associated their identity and ego to a particular opinion or leader – their propensity for self-deception and even betrayal of friends was the norm rather than the exception. We called this subject a “Judas.” For some petty and egotistical affiliation with a leader, policy, or social cause, they did awful things to their friends who had invested good will, trust, and precious time with them. A Judas gossiped, insulted, looked down upon, berated, humiliated, or dissociated from friends who presented existential challenges to their beliefs. The key was how deep the challenge cut to their ego. Friends who opposed their beliefs, but presented weak or trivial arguments were spared the wrath of a Judas. The 2016 presidential primaries unveiled hordes of Judases. I wonder if any of those people still talk to each other.

On the other side, people whose egos were bolstered by the facts we presented viewed us as champions, as we became powerful vehicles for their confirmation bias (the uncritical seeking of justifications for what they already believed). We called them Simons, for St. Peter, the everyday apostle and the common man in his strengths and weaknesses. There is nothing abnormal about confirmation bias. A Simon could become a Judas if they were willing to turn on their friends for differences in beliefs. The uncommon subject was the Thomas. Just like the “doubting Thomas” of the Bible, a Thomas had to see the evidence for himself before he took a stand. A Thomas was concerned with the evidence and justification, and got frustrated with people who were so eager to take things personally. Thomas’ stuck to the facts and concepts, while Judases focused on personal stories and events from their own lives. There couldn’t be a more blatant demonstration of ego than the reliance upon personal stories to “prove” general beliefs about the world. And Judases typically lacked the introspection to see how that pattern of thinking demonstrated their egotistical barriers to truth.

With the mass psychology context established, you can imagine what was going through my mind when I reviewed the political campaigning rules for nonprofits – as Alvarism, LLC is seeking nonprofit status. I knew how vitriolic political activism could get, so I thought the political campaigning restrictions for nonprofits were great rules, and I’m eager to comply with them. My experience in executive management, organizational theory, and leadership made them intuitive. If the mission of Alvarism, LLC as a sociological and economic think tank is to educate the public and policymakers on the results of our research, why would we want to draw battle lines between candidates? Elected officials come and go. While colluding with elected officials may seem pragmatic, it reveals a certain faithlessness in the unique value that the organization has to offer. Affirming a candidate would say that we want to use the power of government to give us an advantage, because our ideas and results aren’t good enough to persuade people honestly.

Consequently, staying out of political campaigning gives us the freedom we need to focus on the mission of this organization. I encourage people to choose the officials who most closely pursue economic sovereignty and valorist principles as described in Economic Sovereignty: Prosperity in a Free Society. But what if that candidate loses the election? Wouldn’t we prefer to cooperate with the less favorable candidate so that we may advance the interests of our members, donors, and followers? One of our first articles asks both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump to approach inequality policies with the truths revealed in Economic Sovereignty. We cannot and we will not endorse either of them. That means that I won’t be liking, supporting, or criticizing any social media posts that deal with this election’s candidates. I can advise people on issues, and let them decide for themselves, but I cannot endorse.

Ultimately, something amazing happened when I affirmed the nonprofit political campaigning rules: I was compelled by my own official capacity to follow organizational standards that fight detrimental mass psychology. Activists who wish to help candidates get elected should form political action committees (PACs). I wish that other nonprofits would stop trying to find ways to circumvent the spirit of these laws. A smart business thrives on predictability and avoids such controversial activity. We need a lot more Thomas’ and fewer Judases in this contentious political climate, or we will soon find that too many of our neighbors believe that snow is black.

(This article is based upon the civics module in Alvarism research, which was presented in “social retrogression” briefings and is described in the third unpublished Alvarism manuscript)

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Clinton and Trump: Shocking Income Inequality Facts Will Boil Your Blood

Dear Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump,

Like many Americans, I tend to stay away from political campaigning and personalities. We’re too busy turning the gears of American industry to spend time fawning over the elected officials that we hire to represent us. We are ready to hire one of you for the highest office in our nation, but it’s not looking good so far. Every time I catch a news story, it sounds more like tabloid hysteria than professional and respectful discourse about your candidacies. As an American who sacrificed my own personal health, savings, and security to publish game-changing economic research, I’m not amused by the opportunists who are swarming around you and poisoning your teams with agenda-driven misinformation. My discoveries have overturned their claims, and my greatest concern is that your speeches will reflect their falsehoods. From your speeches promises will emerge, and from your promises, policies will take hold.

There is a lot at stake for our families if you proceed with misconceptions about American economic inequality. You will slam the door shut on the American dream and leave our children in desperation. Your tax and spending policies that are based upon these falsehoods will cripple all Americans who struggle to earn a safety net for their families in a few good years of their careers. The upper-end of the statistically impoverished class will continue to languish in state dependency, and the truly destitute will be relegated to meagre subsistence. As those policies manipulate the price of labor and siphon tax redistribution, they will continue to explode the outrageous costs of essentials, including rent, real estate, healthcare, education, energy, and government services. Any pittance that your inequality policies send through Americans’ front door will be overshadowed by the taxation and price inflation that you send through their back door.

So let me set the record straight: there is not enough income inequality in our nation. Mistaken economic advisors have certainly arrived at their conclusions with authoritative methods. The problem is that they constructed their inquiries without the full set of assumptions and accurate definitions that model our reality correctly. Consequently, their ardent assertions of “income inequality” are irrelevant conclusions. They calculated income distribution based upon households, and without including all forms of subsidies, welfare, and taxation. So their inequality claims do not represent the actual money that individual Americans have in their pocket – they represent changing household characteristics, inflated income for the wealthy that is whittled away by taxation of various forms, and deflated income for the poor that ignores most of the resources they actually use.

Americans who are considered statistically poor by the Census Bureau spend 2.6x the income that inequality advocates report. In the rare event that they include some form of taxation, they do not include local, state, or ad valorem taxes such as property, sales, and other massive taxes that are levied unequally. Even worse, the household income that they measure does not represent equal numbers of people or earners. For instance, in 2012, the lowest household income quintile had only 0.45 earners and 1.7 people per home, while the highest had 2.04 earners and 3.2 people per home. Do I even have to explain that houses with 4x the workers should be earning at least 4x the income, or that houses with twice the number of mouths to feed need twice the amount of income? Is your blood starting to boil yet, with how the inequality advocates have bamboozled you?

In addition to their exclusion of total welfare, subsidies, clemency, taxation, and household composition, the inequality advocates do not correct for part-time labor or cost of living index. There are people with high salaries that work fifty- to sixty-hour weeks, and there are those with low wages who only work twenty-hour weeks. If a person is getting by with half to one-third of the labor that a higher-income worker is earning, they are not getting a raw deal. Remember that time is money. Why would any honest analyst pretend as if the sixty-hour worker is living the same quality of life as a person who could fill their week with two more jobs on top of the one they have? That’s not exactly a “fair” comparison, is it? As for the cost of living, you should be intimately familiar with that concept due to your relentless business travel. In a state like New York, the per diem payments for travelling government employees fluctuate by 300%! Nationally, the typical variation for cost of living falls within a 30% range. All inequality statistics must be compressed by cost of living if we wish to accurately compare the actual buying power commanded by incomes in different locations.

When corrected for all of these factors, the real inequality measure (Gini ratio) has barely fluctuated since 1984, and is overestimated up to 300% by inequality advocates. The inequality that remains is due to normal factors – industry and age. The industry that a person works in is more or less productive for society. Mining and oil is more productive than landscaping. Although industrial income inequality has more than halved since 1929, it is still a third of modern real income inequality. Age income inequality is greater than real income inequality. A person earns much more at the end of their career than they did in their youth. Did your inequality advisors explain these crucial details to you?

Finally, you must realize that these income statistics are all a snapshot of one year. Most people are not confined to these income levels for their entire lives. Your “poor” stats include elderly with houses paid off, and your “rich” stats include successful married couples at the height of their career. Wealth is not income; wealth is surplus, and income is only a pathway to wealth. Please do not put more barriers in that pathway. There are very few mega-wealthy Americans. Your inequality policies that increase taxes, inflate prices, add value-based tax, and use financial repression in central banking do not affect those few wealthy Americans in the way you imagine. In fact, they bolster the wealth of wealthy Americans, as they artificially inflate their financial accounts, stocks, and bonds.

Your inequality policies will ensure that every endeavoring American never gets to reap the rewards of a prosperous career in the few good years that they earn an impressive income. They also make labor in some industries even more corrupt than it is today. Did you ever wonder why the most advanced industrial nation in history must search the globe for foreign workers? Did you consider that reducing prices for essentials is the best way to help low-income Americans, instead of imposing high minimum wages that will leave many of them unemployed and unable to get their foot in a door that could give them the skills they need?

Manufactured equality has severe consequences for workers, and we are already enduring too much of that harmful equality. Misconceived inequality policies garner class separatism and deconstruction of the American dream. I humbly beseech you to reconsider your inequality rhetoric and advisory teams that failed to accurately disclose these facts to you. With this knowledge, we have the exciting opportunity to reclaim economic sovereignty for Americans; if you fail America in this, you will be a pariah of history instead of a champion.

Thomas E. Kurek

(This article refers to section 3.2 in Economic Sovereignty. All citations for the arguments here, are within the book)

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Breakthrough Discoveries You Must See Before The Upcoming Election

Dear Readers,

After years of research and exhaustive investigation, I have published my first book, revealing discoveries that cannot be found anywhere else. With your support, this great venture will make a difference for our communities in America. The discoveries in Economic Sovereignty: Prosperity in a Free Society, are normally sold to private corporate clients in the form of special reports and whitepapers, at the cost of over $500 each. Because I believe in empowering you, I instead chose to present the discoveries in an affordable book that is easy to read. It comes just in time for the upcoming election of our new President, and no matter who you currently favor, this knowledge is critical to your informed consent when you cast your final vote. Taxation, wealth, poverty, jobs, economics, and inequality is grossly misrepresented by many of our leaders. When you discover the truth, you will be astounded.

It is up to us to require our leaders to pursue optimal policies on our behalf. I am greatly concerned that you might walk into the polls on election day fed with the misinformation spread through network TV broadcasts and misconceived political speeches. If you do, we will repeat recent history. In 2008, thirty years of housing and banking interventions culminated in the most severe economic collapse in a generation. Even though Nobel-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz suggested that the banks should fail, and our greatest economists argued against the bailouts and stimulus debts, our leaders insulted our intelligence by preaching oversimplified falsehoods like “Wall Street greed.” Nary a public official gave honest explanations of the collapse that legendary economist Thomas Sowell presented in The Housing Boom and Bust. Our leaders kicked the can down the road back then, and the day of reckoning now approaches, with the median estimate of economists in a recent Bloomberg survey predicting recession in 2018.

But historic events of national proportion are not the only items of concern. On a daily basis we see economic erosion when college graduates live with their parents while trying to hang on to irregular jobs. We see the economic erosion when people cannot afford health insurance, new houses, college payments, or retirement savings. We see the economic erosion when the only way that low-income Americans can afford children is to game the welfare system by having kids out of wedlock. We see the economic erosion when our elderly cannot afford to leave their children anything of significant value when they pass on. As free people, we are responsible for understanding wealth and taxation in simple terms so that we can make the best decisions for our loved ones and family, during challenging times.

With this groundbreaking book, you and I have mutual needs. I need your support to recover some of the great financial losses I sustained to make these discoveries, and to continue future investigations. You need the discoveries to understand the economic environment that you and your family have been trying to navigate. Your simple support and generosity will set you apart from the great masses of our neighbors who continue to unwittingly feed our economic perdition. With the knowledge you gain, you can help them to see the light. This $500 value is yours for only $9.99 to $34.99, depending on what you prefer:

  1. The Kindle version is $9.99. It features color charts and photos when viewed on color devices.
  2. The paperback version is $24.99. It features a carefully curated index and greyscale-optimized charts and photos.
  3. An autographed copy is available and ships personally and directly from Alvarian Press. It is $34.99. You can find details here:
  4. Amazon offers a discount on the Kindle version if you’d like to own both the paperback and the Kindle version – $24.99 for the paperback and $2.99 for the MatchBook Kindle copy.

You can also support this great endeavor by signing up on our website and following our Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube pages. All you have to do is click on the “Follow” button on the bottom of any page on, and provide your email address. Updates are infrequent, but the few emails you receive will be meaningful.

Thank you for your attention and cooperation. With your support, these critical discoveries will succeed in making positive differences in our communities!

Yours Truly,

Thomas E. Kurek
Founder & President of Alvarian Press, LLC

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Discover Social Facts: U.S. Racial History Estimate

Each of the one-hundred charts published in Economic Sovereignty was curated with meticulous precision. The question emerged: how do U.S. demographics compare to the demographics of the world? Race is just one of many factors. I received a challenge from a local political science enthusiast when I showed him the chart. He suspected that American whites were overrepresented in statistics, but he wanted to see how I figured out that the most accurate estimate of whites in America was 55%:

This conflicts with most major publications. Why? The truth is contained in what we consider to be the definition of race.

When you think of what “white” race looks like in America, do you think of The Simpsons? The Brady Bunch? Hillary and Bill Clinton? Bernie Sanders? Donald and Ivanka Trump? Family Guy? Bing Crosby? Margaret Thatcher? If the answer is “yes,” then only 55% of America is white. Would you consider people who speak Spanish, identify with Latin American culture, and watch Telemundo to be white or Hispanic?

The problem comes from the definition of race in the regulations that have governed statistical collection in the United States. Officially, “Hispanic” is not a race, but an ethnicity, and about half of U.S. Hispanics are “white Hispanics.” Can a person be “racist” against Jews or Muslims? How? Are Judaism and Islam races or religions? Do Jews forbid blacks and Dravidians from converting to their religion? Would they say that they were not really Jews if they did, because of their genetics? Officially, North African and Middle Easterners are considered “white” by the U.S. statistical categories. If that’s the case, then it would be impossible for a “white” person to be “racist” against a Middle Easterner – since the government claims that they are also white.

In technical terms, it would be possible to be “bigoted” or “prejudiced” against an ethnicity, such as Hispanics, Jews, and various Muslims. Racism is a very specific form of prejudice against a person because of their visible genetic manifestations – such as morphology and skin color. People offer prejudice against ethnicities, cultural and political groups much more frequently. Due to intra-Islamic rivalries, there are Muslims who are prejudiced against other ethnicities of Muslims.

I once knew a Sufi Muslim who scowled upon hearing of another Islamist terror attack. He uttered, “Disgusting Wahhabis.” At the time, nobody knew if the killers were Shia. It was as if Hezbollah and Houthis did not exist to him. Yet out of the other side of his mouth, he would say, “do not refer to radical Islamic terror.” He wanted people to join his prejudice against Sunni Muslims instead. Using the term “racist” is not only inaccurate, it leads to glaring contradictions, and obscures visceral prejudice against other identity groups such as black conservatives or rural whites.

To reconcile these contradictions, we consider race in terms of ethnoracial identity, and that is what my chart accurately represents. It makes absolutely no sense to present ethnicities such as Middle Easterners, Jews, and Hispanics as white people occasionally in crime reports, housing data, national demographic data, or other analyses, and then single them out as minorities in other inquiries.

The categories black, white, Hispanic, and other encompass America’s general perception of ethnoracial identity. My data analysis includes greater precision, but it’s lost in a small chart, so Asians, Pacific Islanders, Dravidians, Sinhalese (and other Indians), Native Americans, North Africans, Middle Easterners, etc. are included in the “other” category. The Hispanic category represents all Hispanics.

I believe that this ethnoracial identity ontology more accurately depicts common public perceptions of race. You could reproduce my chart using these assumptions, and the citations for the source data (there are numerous sources required for the estimate). The citations are published within Economic Sovereignty. Instead, you could just cite the chart from my book, but I’d be very interested in any cross-validation of my result with other researchers who have used the same set of assumptions.